Spring Home Buying Season Starts Early

Realtor.com®, a leader in online real estate operated by Move, Inc., recently released its February data on the U.S. housing market, offering valuable insight into the latest real estate trends. Realtor.com®’s February 2013 national housing data indicates that listing inventories increased 1.15 percent month-over-month; median age of inventory was at 98 days, a 9.26 percent decrease month-over-month; and median list prices were slightly higher month-over-month at $189,900. These numbers show that home buyers are getting an early start on the spring season despite the fact that inventories recently hit record lows.

“As we enter the busiest time of the year for home buyers and sellers, our latest housing trend data shows just how competitive the market is with a significant national housing recovery well underway,” said Steve Berkowitz, chief executive officer of Move, Inc. “Looking ahead, we can expect the amount of inventory to increase this spring along with higher list prices as sellers become more comfortable with the market conditions.”

The median age of inventory was down by 9.26 percent month over month and total listings are up 1.15 percent month over month, suggesting that many reluctant home sellers are starting to take an early advantage of the recent improvements in housing prices. Annual inventory decreases of -15.97 percent are consistent with a gradual, yet persistent downward trend that has been occurring over the last two years. From January 2013 to February 2013, the median age of inventory decreased in 145 of the 146 markets tracked by realtor.com®. The national median list price also reversed its downward trend, rising by 1.55 percent over the month of February and 1.01 percent on an annual basis. In addition, the number of markets experiencing a decline in home prices is shrinking, implying more good news for the housing market and U.S. economy at large.

There continue to be pronounced regional differences in the strength of the housing market. Several areas in California are experiencing the highest increases in list prices coupled with the largest inventory declines. Phoenix, Seattle and Denver are also among the top performers across the U.S. However, many smaller industrialized markets in the Midwest and the Northeast registered year-over-year price declines, as did Philadelphia, Chicago and New York City. While the number of markets experiencing year-over-year list price declines had been increasing, this pattern appears to be turning around as home list prices increased in 78 markets last month on a year-over-year basis and declined in 39.

National Data

• In February, the total number of single-family homes, condos, townhomes and co-ops for sale in the U.S. (1,494,218) increased by 1.15 percent month-over-month. On an annual basis, however, inventory was down by 15.97 percent.

• The national median list price for single-family homes, condos, townhomes and co-ops ($189,900) increased by 1.01 percent year-over-year and 1.55 percent month-over-month in February.

• The median age of inventory of for sale listings fell to 98 days in February, down 9.26 percent from January and 11.71 percent below the median age one year ago (February 2012).

Regional Data

• Nearly all of the markets with the largest year-over-year declines in their for sale inventories in February were in California, where declines averaged 48 percent. The list includes Sacramento, Stockton, Oakland, San Jose, Orange County, Los Angeles, Seattle, San Francisco, Riverside and Ventura. These markets also experienced a dramatic decline in the median age of inventory, falling to an average of just 31 days, or 53 percent lower than it was one year ago.

• On an annual basis, February median list prices were up by 5 percent or more in 51 markets while they were down by more than 5 percent in 11 markets. The number of markets experiencing a year-over-year list price decline in February (39) is significantly below the number of declines observed in January (50). California markets continue to dominate the list of areas experiencing the largest year-over-year increases in their median list prices, representing nine out of the top ten best performers.

• The ten markets with the longest time on the market continued to include the coastal areas of the Carolinas and the resort communities of Santa Fe, NM and Ashville, NC. In addition, five older industrialized areas also appear on the list: Reading, PA; Portland, ME; Albany, NY; Philadelphia and Trenton, NJ. California markets continued to dominate the list of top ten areas with the shortest time on the market, although the median age of inventory was also at record lows in Denver and Seattle. Median time on market in these areas averaged just 28 days, 51 percent lower compared to one year ago.

Realtor.com® regularly tracks real estate data and develops monthly reports featuring the number of listings, median age of inventory and median list price across the U.S. and in specific markets, as well as provides year-over-year and month-over-month changes. These reports are the only ones pulled directly from the realtor.com® database that updates every 15 minutes from more than 800 multiple listing services.

Buyers Expect Price Increases

Despite forecasts that prices will increase less in 2013 than this year, buyers are more concerned by rising prices than the overall economy. Thirty-three percent of buyers listed rising prices as a major concern in the fourth quarter, up from just 23 percent in the third quarter. Meanwhile, 22 percent said they were concerned with a weak economy, down from 27 percent in the third quarter, according to the Redfin Real-Time Homebuyer Survey. From November 30 to December 2, 2012, Redfin surveyed 1,084 active homebuyers who had toured a home with a Redfin agent since August 14.

More Than 70 percent of buyers believe prices will rise next year in their markets. The number of buyers who believe prices are rising shot up even higher in the fourth quarter, although most still expect gains to be modest. Ten percent of respondents expect home prices in their area to “rise a lot” over the next twelve months, the same as last quarter; 61 percent expect prices to “rise a little” an increase of ten percentage points over last quarter. Twenty-one percent expect prices to “stay the same,” 6 percent expect prices to “drop a little,” and less than 1 percent expect prices to “drop a lot.”

A growing number of buyers are planning to buy in order to get out in front of rising prices. Thirty-three percent of respondents indicated rising prices as a motivation for buying now, up from 29 percent in the third quarter and just 19 percent in the first quarter. Not surprisingly, a decreasing number of buyers cited “low home prices” as their reason for buying-just 28 percent in this quarter’s survey, down from 33 percent in the third quarter and 40 percent in the first quarter.

More than half (59 percent) of buyers listed low inventory as their top concern with buying now, consistent with last quarter’s rate. When we asked buyers how low inventory was affecting their home search, nearly half (46 percent) indicated that they have expanded their search to include new areas that they hadn’t previously been considering, while 38% indicated that they would be taking a break until more listings come on the market.

In the nine months between Redfin’s first quarter survey and the fourth quarter survey, the percentage of buyers who were also potential home sellers roughly doubled, from 8 percent to 16 percent; after years of rising, the percentage of first-time home-buyers actually decreased from 48 percent to 37 percent. Over that same time, buyers who believe prices will rise over the next 12 months has gone from one in three (34 percent), a minority, to an overwhelming majority, nearly 3 in 4 (71 percent); the number that considered delaying a purchase to see if prices dropped further declined from nearly 1 in 3 (29 percent) to one in 20.
For homebuyers who are not first-timers, we asked if they’re planning to buy a home that is bigger, smaller, or the same size as their current home. The most common response was “much bigger,” at 49 percent. Only 9.6 percent intend to buy a home that is much smaller, while the remaining 41 percent are planning to buy a home that’s the same size but is nicer, more affordable, or in a different location.

Most homebuyers are not very concerned about the Fiscal Cliff and possible changes to the Mortgage Interest Deduction. Although the possible consequences of some of the proposed changes may be large for certain people, only about 5 percent of buyers are seriously concerned and only 23 percent are being more cautious in their home search while they wait to see how things pan out.

For more information, visit www.realestateeconomywatch.com