The majority of housing markets remain affordable to the average
family, but rising mortgage rates and rising housing prices are causing
more families to have to stretch financially, according to Freddie Mac’s
U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for December.
“Rising mortgage rates and rising housing prices over the past six
months are making it more challenging for the typical family to purchase
a home without stretching beyond their means, especially in the
Northeast and along the Pacific Coast,” says Frank Nothaft, Freddie
Mac’s chief economist. “Like most, we expect mortgage rates to rise over
the coming year, so it's critical we start to see more job gains and
income growth in the coming year. This will help to keep
payment-to-income ratios in balance -- an important factor not only for
first-time buyers but for sustaining homeownership levels among existing
owners."
According to Freddie Mac’s report, more than 70 percent of the
nation’s housing stock remained affordable to the typical family in the
third quarter at a 4.4 percent interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate
mortgage. However, that percentage decreases to about 63 percent at a 5
percent mortgage rate; 55 percent at a 6 percent interest rate; and 35
percent at a 7 percent interest rate.
Source: Freddie Mac
Showing posts with label affordable housing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label affordable housing. Show all posts
Returning Real Estate Market
Markets in 54 out of the approximately 350 metro areas nationwide returned to or exceeded their last normal levels of economic and housing activity, according to the National Association of Home Builders/First American Leading Markets Index (LMI), released today. The index’s nationwide score of .86 indicates that, based on current permits, prices and employment data, the nationwide market is running at 86 percent of normal economic and housing activity.
The LMI figures for November showed that 55 housing markets were operating at or above their last normal levels and the nationwide market was operating at 85 percent of normal growth.
LMI data for the two months were released simultaneously because of the delay in collecting data during the partial government shutdown in October.
“This index shows that most housing markets across the nation are continuing a slow, gradual climb back to normal levels,” said NAHB Chairman Rick Judson, a home builder from Charlotte, N.C. “Policymakers must guard against actions that could impede or even reverse the modest gains of the past year.”
Noting that smaller metros accounted for most of the 54 markets on the current LMI that are at or above normal levels, NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said that “smaller markets are leading the way, particularly where energy is the primary economic driver. Nearly half of the markets in the top 54 are in the energy states of Texas, Louisiana, North Dakota, Wyoming and Montana.”
“The fact that more than 125 markets on this month’s LMI are showing activity levels of at least 90 percent of previous norms bodes well for a continuing housing recovery in 2014,” said Kurt Pfotenhauer, vice chairman of First American Title Insurance Co., which co-sponsors the LMI report.
Baton Rouge, La., tops the list of major metros on the LMI, with a score of 1.42 – or 42 percent better than its last normal market level. Other major metros at the top of the list include Honolulu, Oklahoma City, Austin and Houston, Texas, as well as Pittsburgh – all of whose LMI scores indicate that their market activity now exceeds previous norms.
Looking at smaller metros, both Odessa and Midland, Texas, boast LMI scores of 2.0 or better, meaning that their markets are now at double their strength prior to the recession. Also at the top of the list of smaller metros are Casper, Wyo.; Bismarck, N.D.; and Grand Forks, N.D., respectively.
The LMI shifts the focus from identifying markets that have recently begun to recover, which was the aim of a previous gauge known as the Improving Markets Index, to identifying those areas that are now approaching and exceeding their previous normal levels of economic and housing activity.
More than 350 metro areas are scored by taking their average permit, price and employment levels for the past 12 months and dividing each by their annual average over the last period of normal growth. For single-family permits and home prices, 2000-2003 is used as the last normal period, and for employment, 2007 is the base comparison. The three components are then averaged to provide an overall score for each market; a national score is calculated based on national measures of the three metrics. An index value above one indicates that a market has advanced beyond its previous normal level of economic activity.
Editor’s Note: In calculating the LMI, NAHB utilizes employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, house price appreciation data from Freddie Mac and single-family housing permits from the U.S. Census Bureau. The LMI is published on the fourth working day of each month, unless that day falls on a Friday -- in which case, it is released on the following Monday.
For historical information and charts, please go to nahb.org/lmi.
The LMI figures for November showed that 55 housing markets were operating at or above their last normal levels and the nationwide market was operating at 85 percent of normal growth.
LMI data for the two months were released simultaneously because of the delay in collecting data during the partial government shutdown in October.
“This index shows that most housing markets across the nation are continuing a slow, gradual climb back to normal levels,” said NAHB Chairman Rick Judson, a home builder from Charlotte, N.C. “Policymakers must guard against actions that could impede or even reverse the modest gains of the past year.”
Noting that smaller metros accounted for most of the 54 markets on the current LMI that are at or above normal levels, NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said that “smaller markets are leading the way, particularly where energy is the primary economic driver. Nearly half of the markets in the top 54 are in the energy states of Texas, Louisiana, North Dakota, Wyoming and Montana.”
“The fact that more than 125 markets on this month’s LMI are showing activity levels of at least 90 percent of previous norms bodes well for a continuing housing recovery in 2014,” said Kurt Pfotenhauer, vice chairman of First American Title Insurance Co., which co-sponsors the LMI report.
Baton Rouge, La., tops the list of major metros on the LMI, with a score of 1.42 – or 42 percent better than its last normal market level. Other major metros at the top of the list include Honolulu, Oklahoma City, Austin and Houston, Texas, as well as Pittsburgh – all of whose LMI scores indicate that their market activity now exceeds previous norms.
Looking at smaller metros, both Odessa and Midland, Texas, boast LMI scores of 2.0 or better, meaning that their markets are now at double their strength prior to the recession. Also at the top of the list of smaller metros are Casper, Wyo.; Bismarck, N.D.; and Grand Forks, N.D., respectively.
The LMI shifts the focus from identifying markets that have recently begun to recover, which was the aim of a previous gauge known as the Improving Markets Index, to identifying those areas that are now approaching and exceeding their previous normal levels of economic and housing activity.
More than 350 metro areas are scored by taking their average permit, price and employment levels for the past 12 months and dividing each by their annual average over the last period of normal growth. For single-family permits and home prices, 2000-2003 is used as the last normal period, and for employment, 2007 is the base comparison. The three components are then averaged to provide an overall score for each market; a national score is calculated based on national measures of the three metrics. An index value above one indicates that a market has advanced beyond its previous normal level of economic activity.
Editor’s Note: In calculating the LMI, NAHB utilizes employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, house price appreciation data from Freddie Mac and single-family housing permits from the U.S. Census Bureau. The LMI is published on the fourth working day of each month, unless that day falls on a Friday -- in which case, it is released on the following Monday.
For historical information and charts, please go to nahb.org/lmi.
HUD Launched RAD program (Rental Assistance Demonstration)
In the near term, RAD is expected to preserve and enhance more than 278 units of affordable housing in Austin, Fort Worth, and McKinney and generate private capital to address the significant backlog in capital needs faced by public housing authorities in the U.S. This additional capital will also stimulate employment in the construction trades across the country. Nationally, RAD is expected to benefit more than 13,000 units of affordable housing and generate more than $650 million in private capital.
"This innovative and cost-effective approach greatly enhances our ability to confront the decline of our public housing and older assisted housing stock," said HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan. "With the initial implementation of RAD, the Obama Administration has begun to demonstrate that public-private partnership can help preserve our nation's affordable housing and create jobs in the process."
"HUD and our local partners are working to protect critically needed affordable housing for the residents in these communities," said Acting Regional Administrator Mark Brezina. "This is a market-based approach to helping local housing authorities tap into private capital to preserve housing for some of our most vulnerable citizens."
HUD awarded commitments to the Austin Housing Authority, the Fort Worth Housing Authority, and the McKinney Housing Authority, allowing them to seek private financing to rehabilitate 278 units that are otherwise at risk of being lost from the affordable housing inventory.
RAD allows public housing agencies and private owners of certain at-risk, federally assisted properties to convert their current assistance to long-term Section 8 contracts. Such contracts will allow owners to leverage millions of dollars in debt and equity to better address immediate capital needs and preserve these affordable housing units. In addition, participating agencies are freed from antiquated public housing rules and restrictions that hindered their ability to best preserve and manage their housing similar to other affordable housing owners and managers.
In 2011, HUD released Capital Needs in the Public Housing Program, a study that found the nation's 1.2 million public housing units need nearly $26 billion to keep these homes in safe and decent condition for families, a figure well in excess of the roughly $2 billion Congress appropriates for capital repairs annually. Beyond the potential loss of this public housing, the Moderate Rehabilitation, Rent Supplement, and older Rental Assistance Payment (RAP) programs are at risk of being lost from the affordable housing stock.
RAD is part of the Obama Administration's comprehensive strategy to preserve public and HUD-assisted housing. In November 2011, Congress authorized HUD to implement RAD as a budget-neutral demonstration program with two components, allowing for the conversion of assistance for both public housing and HUD-assisted properties that have expiring subsidies.
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